Jimmy Lo

Writing

Field Notes.(20)

News, policy briefs, market debates, and sharp takes on housing, real estate, and PropTech.

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Market Data

New Homes Now Outsell Existing Ones in Some Markets. That's Not a Recovery Signal.

New home sales are running at their highest share of total home sales in decades. In several Sun Belt metros, new construction now accounts for more than 30% of all closings — a level not seen since the early 2000s boom. But the headline obscures a troubling reality: this is a market distortion, not a recovery.

May 24, 2026

New Homes Now Outsell Existing Ones in Some Markets. That's Not a Recovery Signal.
Market Analysis

Spring 2026 Is Breaking: What 6.51% Mortgages and 4.4 Months of Supply Mean for the Housing Cycle

Mortgage rates just jumped 15 basis points in a single week to 6.51%. Pending sales fell. Purchase applications dropped. And Bright MLS reversed its 2026 price forecast from positive to negative. Taken together, this is not noise — it is a structural inflection in the 2026 spring market.

May 23, 2026

Spring 2026 Is Breaking: What 6.51% Mortgages and 4.4 Months of Supply Mean for the Housing Cycle
PropTech

Zillow Launches AI Mode as Q1 Revenue Climbs 18% to $708M

Zillow reported Q1 2026 revenue of $708 million, up 18% year-over-year, as it rolls out AI Mode — an LLM-powered conversational assistant that guides buyers from natural-language search through to scheduled tours.

May 23, 2026

Zillow Launches AI Mode as Q1 Revenue Climbs 18% to $708M
Market Data

NAR: April Existing-Home Sales Edge Up 0.2% to 4.02M as Inventory Hits 4.4 Months

April existing-home sales reached 4.02 million annualized units, up just 0.2% month-over-month, with inventory climbing to 4.4 months of supply — the highest level since early 2019.

May 23, 2026

NAR: April Existing-Home Sales Edge Up 0.2% to 4.02M as Inventory Hits 4.4 Months
Rental Market

NYC’s Record Rent Gap Is Now a $70,000 Behavioral Lock

As of the week ending May 17, 2026, the gap between in-place contract rents and market asking rents stands at a record $1,761/month — equivalent to $70,440 in additional pre-tax income needed just to maintain a 30% rent-to-income ratio if you move. This is not just an affordability number. It is a behavioral lock reshaping the NYC rental market.

May 22, 2026

NYC’s Record Rent Gap Is Now a $70,000 Behavioral Lock
PropTech

Consumer Trust in AI for Homebuying Fell by Half in Just One Year

A major new survey from Cotality covering buyers in the U.S., Canada, UK, and Australia found that consumer trust in AI for homebuying decisions fell from 30% in 2025 to just 16% in 2026 — a drop of nearly half, even as real estate platforms accelerated their AI deployments across search, valuation, and mortgage processing.

May 22, 2026

Consumer Trust in AI for Homebuying Fell by Half in Just One Year
Mortgage & Rates

Land leases, ARM buydowns emerge as lending options while mortgage rates stay elevated

Mortgage lenders are getting creative to combat the housing affordability crisis fueled by rising interest rates, rolling out novel products and blending existing options to keep borrowers in the…

May 21, 2026

Land leases, ARM buydowns emerge as lending options while mortgage rates stay elevated
Housing

Berkeley Mandates Electrification Upgrades at Point of Sale for Single-Family Homes

Berkeley, California has mandated that sellers or buyers of single-family homes install heat pumps or other low-carbon systems before closing — making it the first U.S. city to tie electrification upgrades directly to the point of sale.

May 21, 2026

Berkeley Mandates Electrification Upgrades at Point of Sale for Single-Family Homes
Market Analysis

Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holds

Toll Brothers is lifting its 2026 home delivery outlook, citing sustained demand in the luxury segment even as mortgage rates remain elevated. The move signals confidence that affluent buyers are largely rate-insensitive — a dynamic reshaping the competitive landscape for homebuilders.

May 21, 2026

Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holds
Data Science

Q1 Earnings Show How Much the Data Center Boom Is Fueling Property Industry Growth

Real estate services firms and building systems companies reported strong Q1 2026 earnings, driven by surging data center demand and infrastructure services growth — underscoring how the AI buildout is becoming a dominant force in commercial real estate.

May 21, 2026

Q1 Earnings Show How Much the Data Center Boom Is Fueling Property Industry Growth
Mortgage & Rates

What the Fed's Rate Pause Means for Housing in 2026

With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, the housing market faces a prolonged period of adjustment. Here's what the data tells us about buyer behavior, inventory shifts, and price trajectories in this new normal.

May 10, 2026

What the Fed's Rate Pause Means for Housing in 2026
Rental Market

NYC Rental Market: Spring 2026 Data Shows Surprising Shifts

New data from StreetEasy and Census Bureau surveys reveals a reshuffling of rental demand across New York City's five boroughs, with implications for affordability and urban development patterns.

May 5, 2026

PropTech

How Accurate Are AI Property Valuations in 2026?

Automated Valuation Models have improved dramatically, but their accuracy varies significantly by property type, location, and market conditions. We analyze the latest performance data.

April 28, 2026

Policy

The Zoning Reform Wave: Which Cities Are Actually Building More?

Multiple cities have passed significant zoning reforms in recent years. We look at the data to see which reforms are translating into actual housing production and which are falling short.

April 20, 2026

Commercial RE

Office-to-Residential Conversions: Promise vs. Reality

Converting empty offices to housing sounds elegant, but the economics are complex. We analyze where conversions pencil out and where they remain aspirational.

April 15, 2026